NEW DELHI (AP) — Iran's top diplomat warned on Friday that his nation is prepared to return to direct military confrontation with the United States if a fragile ceasefire collapses, as both sides trade accusations of bad faith and the economic toll of the conflict continues to ripple across the globe.
The stark warning, delivered by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of a BRICS foreign ministers' summit in New Delhi, underscores the profound fragility of the truce brokered by Pakistan that halted over six weeks of open war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Araghchi declared that a "lack of trust" remains the single biggest obstacle to turning the temporary ceasefire into a lasting peace, accusing Washington of sending "contradictory messages" that have left Tehran questioning American intentions.
A 40-Day War and Its Aftermath
The current crisis ignited before dawn on February 28, 2026, when the U.S. and Israel launched a coordinated, large-scale aerial campaign against Iran. Codenamed "Operation Epic Fury" by the U.S. and "Operation Roaring Lion" by Israel, the opening salvoes targeted military installations, nuclear enrichment facilities, and senior leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was reportedly assassinated in the first hours of the conflict.
Over the course of the 40-day war, U.S. and Israeli forces struck more than 17,000 sites across Iran. Iran retaliated almost immediately under "Operation True Promise IV," launching a massive barrage of over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones that expanded the war's geographic footprint to seven countries—including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—within 48 hours. The strikes targeted key U.S. military assets, including the Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE, with at least 64 U.S. service members suffering concussive injuries at Iraq's Ain al-Asad Air Base alone.
The war has been staggeringly costly for the United States. While the Pentagon has not confirmed precise figures, Democratic Senator Ed Case cited a defense report suggesting Washington lost approximately 39 aircraft during the conflict—an average of nearly one aircraft per day. The losses reportedly include more than 20 MQ-9 Reaper drones, F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets, and numerous helicopters. If verified, this would represent the most significant U.S. air force attrition since the Vietnam War. The total cost of the campaign is estimated at 29billion,with29billion, with24 billion in equipment, aircraft, and munitions losses alone.
Despite the scale of the assault, analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) concluded that the U.S. failed to achieve its core political objectives. It could not destroy Iran's deeply buried nuclear infrastructure, eliminate the threat to the Strait of Hormuz, or force a decisive change in Tehran's behavior.
A Trust Deficit and a Ceasefire "On Life Support"
The Pakistan-mediated ceasefire, which took effect on April 8, temporarily halted the most intense combat operations. However, the truce has been described by President Donald Trump himself as being "on massive life support," where "the doctor walks in and says, 'Sir, your loved one has approximately a one percent chance of living'".
The first round of formal negotiations on April 11 ended without an agreement, and a second round has yet to materialize. President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest proposal as "garbage" further soured the atmosphere, with the administration insisting it will accept nothing less than the complete removal of highly enriched uranium from Iran and an end to its nuclear weapons capabilities. Iran maintains its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes.
Against this backdrop, Araghchi made a rare diplomatic overture, stating that Tehran "would welcome diplomatic support from other countries, particularly from China," and cited Beijing's constructive role in previously facilitating the restoration of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. "The Chinese have a good intention. So anything that can be done by them to help diplomacy would be welcomed by the Islamic Republic of Iran," he said.
The Strait of Hormuz: An Economic Chokepoint
While diplomats talk, the Strait of Hormuz has become the conflict's primary battlefield. This narrow waterway, through which one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies historically transited, is now a zone of aggressive posturing.
On Friday, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that its forces have redirected 72 commercial vessels to and from Iranian ports and have "disabled" four others since the onset of maritime restrictions in mid-April. This follows Washington's initiation of a maritime blockade on Iranian ports on April 13, a move that mirrored Iran's own tightened grip on shipping in the strait, which it justifies as a response to "illegal aggression".
The disruption has triggered the largest oil supply shock in the history of the global market, according to the International Energy Agency, sending energy prices soaring and fueling inflationary pressures worldwide. Araghchi directly linked the crisis to economic pain in the U.S., arguing that Americans are "being forced to absorb the economic cost of what he described as a 'war of choice,'" with rising energy costs impacting mortgage rates and overall financial stability.
A Region's Future in Doubt
More than just a bilateral conflict, Iran frames the war as a transformative event for the entire Middle East. In a meeting with his Malaysian counterpart, Araghchi called the 40-day war a "significant turning point," stating it has proved regional states "can no longer rely on the United States and the Israeli regime for regional security". Instead, he advocated for collective, indigenous security arrangements.
For now, the region is caught in a precarious limbo between a shaky ceasefire and the ever-present danger of a return to war. With diplomatic negotiations deadlocked, a massive U.S. military force still deployed nearby, and Iran signaling its combat "readiness," the fuse for a new and potentially wider conflict remains very much lit.